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News from Knight Frank Hong Kong

Knight Frank launches The Wealth Report 2016 (10th edition)

03 March 2016

Knight Frank, the independent global property consultancy, and Bank of China International Limited jointly hosted a press conference in Hong Kong for the launch of The Wealth Report 2016. Now in its 10th year, the report tracks the growing super-rich population in 98 cities.

  • Asia tops the absolute increase in UHNWI population among world regions, both in the last 10 years and in the next 10 years. 
  • The global population of Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) has grown by 60% in the 10 years since The Wealth Report first published in 2007. 
  • China ranks 2nd in the world in terms of absolute increase in UHNWI population over the next 10 years. 
  • Hong Kong tops UHNWI population among Asia’s cities in 2015. 
  • Asia billionaires will surge by 71% over the next decade. 
  • China tops the largest billionaire population in Asia in 2015.
  • Singapore overtakes Hong Kong, moving to third position in the world’s most important cities to UHNWIs in 2016. 
  • Shanghai tops in Asia on prime residential price annual growth in 2015.
  • Hong Kong’s luxury homes remain the second most expensive in the world. 

Wealth distribution 

Highlights of Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individual (UHNWI) population:

  • There are now 187,468 UHNWIs globally –a 61% rise from 116,800 in 2005. The growth reflects the increase in asset prices and investment returns, especially in the years following the global financial crisis. 
     
  • By 2025, the global population of UHNWIs is set to rise by 41% to 263,483; growth is set to be significantly slower than the previous 10 years. 

UHNWI population 2005, 2015 and 2025

World Region 2005 2015 Absolute Increase
(2005-2015)
2025 Absolute Increase
(2015-2025)
Asia 17,531 41,072 23,541 67,999 26,927
North America 51,934 69,283 17,349 90,247 20,964
Europe 32,073 46,191 14,118 58,465 12,274
Middle East 4,712 8,910 4,198 13,763 4,853
Russia & CIS 2,039 6,105 4,066 10,517 4,412
Latin America
& Caribbean
5,279 9,492 4,213 13,380 3,888
Australasia 1,630 3,795 2,165 5,179 1,384
Africa 1,602 2,620 1,018 3,933 1,313
Global 116,800 187,468 70,668 263,483 76,015
Source: New World Wealth, The Wealth Report 2016 (Pages 20, 21)

UHNWI population 2015-2025 – Top 20 locations in terms of absolute increase

Rank Location UNHWI population
2015
UNHWI population
2025
Absolute increase
(2015-2025)
% change
(2015-2025)
1 United States 65,713 85,427 19,714 30%
2 China 13.013 22.773 9,760 75%
3 India 6,020 12,341 6,321 105%
4 Russian
Federation
5,343 9,190 3,847 72%
5 United
Kingdom
9,968 12,958 2,990 30%
6 Germany 9,310 12,289 2,979 32%
7 Japan 6,448 8,124 1,676 26%
8 Hong Kong 3,854 5,473 1,619 42%
9 Mexico 2,524 3,988 1,464 58%
10 Brazil 3,908 5,276 1,368 35%
11 Turkey 2,140 3,424 1,284 60%
12 Canada 3,570 4,820 1,250 35%
13 Indonesia 1,096 2,302 1,206 110%
14 South Korea 2,143 3,322 1,179 55%
15 Singapore 2,360 3,493 1,133 48%
16 Australia 3,010 4,064 1,054 35%
17 Taiwan 1,951 2,887 936 48%
18 Israel 1,506 2,334 828 55%
19 Switzerland 5,680 6,362 682 12%
20 United Arab
Emirates
1,350 2,025 675 50%
Source: New World Wealth
  • China and India are ranked 2nd and 3rd in the world in terms of absolute increase in UHNWI population over the next 10 years. 
     
  • In 2015, Hong Kong had the highest number of UHNWIs in Asia. The growth of Hong Kong UHNWI population is set to continue in the coming decade. It is expected to climb by 42% to 5,473 in 2025.  
     
  • Nicholas Holt, Head of Research for Asia Pacific, says, “Of the 19 countries tracked within Asia Pacific, 12 saw their UHNWI population fall in 2015, principally as a result of global macro-economic events, including the Chinese slowdown, the fall in the price of oil, volatile equity markets and the strengthening of the US dollar. Looking at a longer time horizon however, Asia especially has been a fertile ground for the growth in the number of UHNWIs, with more individuals surpassing the US$30m barrier than in any other region over the last 10 years.
     
  • “Much of this newfound wealth in Asia has had an impact on the age profile of Asia’s wealth brackets, reflecting the recent nature of the growth and opportunities in these markets. The average age of population with $10m or more in net assets is a case in point, with Chinese individuals in this bracket on average 10 years younger than their Swiss counterparts." 
Billionaire populations 

Highlights of billionaire population:
  • For billionaire population, a 71% surge in the number of Asian billionaires over the next decade will take the total to 832, nearly neck and neck with the US, where the population by then will be 840.
  • The total number of billionaires in the world now reaches 1,919, which is a 68% increase from 10 years ago. China, with 185 billionaires, tops the largest billionaire population in Asia.
 
Region Billionaire population
2005
Billionaire population
2015
Billionaire population
2025
% change
2005-2015
% change
2015-2025
North America 483 645 840 34% 30%
Asia 182 487 832 168% 71%
Europe 316 448 569 42% 27%
Russia and CIS 33 97 166 194% 71%
Middle East 50 90 140 80% 56%
Latin America & Caribbean 47 86 120 83% 40%
Africa 21 35 51 67% 46%
Australasia 13 31 42 138% 35%
TOTAL 1,145 1,919 2,760 68% 44%
Source: New World Wealth / The Wealth Report 2016 (Pages 64)

Global Wealth Movement
Source: The Wealth Report 2016, Page 30

10-year shift in global wealth movement

The past decade has seen remarkable growth in cross-border investment by individuals, with property forming a significant part of the story. 

The general trend over the past decade has been for significant growth in cross-border investment, led by massive growth in outflows from China (+1,471%) from 2005 to 2015. Looking at inward investment, China has seen notable growth (+500%) as well in the same period of time. 

Asian markets have seen strong interest from regional property investor, have seen concomitant growth in the data reviewed, notably Singapore (+285%), Hong Kong (+222%) and Australia (146%).

David Ji notices that increasingly UHNWIs from China are expanding from residential into investing in commercial properties, especially in the US, either individually or through a private equity fund. Although this trend is not unique to Chinese wealthy, this does imply that the regional hubs in countries like the US will see more small to mid-cap commercial investment going forward.

Top 10 most important cities to UHNWIs

Ranking 2015 2016
1 London London
2 New York New York
3 Hong Kong Singapore
4 Singapore Hong Kong
5 Shanghai Dubai
6 Miami Shanghai
7 Paris Paris
8 Dubai Sydney
9 Beijing Beijing
10 Zurich Geneva
Source: The Wealth Report 2016, Page 36

Over the past decade, The Wealth Report has ranked the cities that matter most to the world’s wealthy, based on where they live, invest, educate their children, grow their businesses, network and spend their leisure time. On all measures, year-in year-out, London and New York have vied for the two top slots. No other city comes close in terms of their breadth and depth of appeal. Singapore has also beaten Hong Kong, displacing Hong Kong from the third place.

Prime Residential Property

Prime International Residential Index (PIRI)
Source: The Wealth Report 2016, Page 39

This year, the PIRI included programme data for 100 of the world’s key luxury cities and second-home markets. The index highlights the many factors playing out around the world that affect prime property markets.  

Overall PIRI performance:

  • The value of luxury residential property markets rose on average by 1.8% in 2015.
  • In 2015, 66 of the PIRI 100 locations recorded flat or positive price growth, while 10 locations recorded double-digit growth. 
  • Vancouver is the top performer in our PIRI, with price growth of almost 25% in 2015.
  • European cities dominate the top end of the rankings in terms of price growth with 3 cities in the top 10. 
  • With the relaxation of cooling measures in some Chinese cities, Shanghai moved up from 61 place in last year’s ranking to the third place, recording 14.1% annual price growth in 2015. Shanghai is also the only Asian city that entered the top 10.
  • Singapore (ranked 81, -2.1%), Hong Kong (ranked 91, -3.6%) and Taipei (ranked 93, -4.7%) are the bottom three Asian cities featured in the index.

The PIRI - Annual change in prime prices to Dec 2015

No. Location World Region Annual % change
(Q4 2014-Q4 2015)
1 Vancouver North America 24.5%
2 Sydney Australasia 14.8%
3 Shanghai Asia 14.1%
4 Instabul Middle East 13.0%
5 Munich Europe 12.0%
6 Melbourne Australasia 11.9%
7 San Francisco North America 10.9%
8 Auckland Australasia 10.2%
9= Amsterdam Europe 10.0%
9= Monaco Europe 10.0%
Source: The Wealth Report 2016, Page 41

All data comes from Knight Frank’s global network with the exception of Tokyo - Ken Corporation; Washington DC - Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. Statistics generated on 06/01-2016 ©Copyright 2016. All rights reserved. São Paulo - FIPE (Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas); Oslo - Torbjørn EK; San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles, Boston, New York, Chicago - S&P Case Shiller

All price changes relate to local currency and reflect nominal change.  Data for San Francisco, New York, Miami, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago, and Cyprus relates to the period from 1 Nov 2014 to 31 Oct 2015. Data for The Hamptons, Aspen and Sao Paulo relates to the period from 1 Dec 2014 to 30 Nov 2015. The price change for Tokyo relates to all properties above JPY100m.

Hong Kong’s luxury homes remain the second most expensive in the world
Source: The Wealth Report 2016, Page 42
 
Monaco - for the ninth consecutive year – is confirmed as the most expensive city to buy luxury residential property, with US$1m buying just 17 square metres of accommodation. Not far behind, are Hong Kong and London occupying second and third. US$1m would buy 20 and 22 square metres, respectively. 
 
Source: The Wealth Report 2015, Page 42

Notes: Price ranges for Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai are for properties considered “Super-Prime”. Prices used in the calculation for Sydney and Hong Kong are based on apartments only and for New York, Los Angeles and Miami based on condos only. All currency calculations are based on the prevailing rate on 31 December 2015.
 
David Ji, Director and Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China at Knight Frank says, “the US interest rate increases will undoubtedly be an impact on buyer sentiment leading to a reduction of sales volumes. This will be the case even though the Federal Reserve’s initial moves are likely to remain cautious and will have only a minimal impact on mortgage payments.”
 
Nicholas Holt, Head of Research in Asia-Pacific says, “new-build volumes are critical to future performance. At the prime end of the market, Hong Kong is seeing tight supply, same happens to Singapore but at much less severe levels. In long run, investors will do well to maintain their focus on the leading urban centres. Prime city markets tend to bounce back quickest from any downturn and deliver relatively strong liquidity throughout market cycles.”
 
Francis Tang, Deputy Head of Private Banking Division, Bank of China International Limited (BOCIL) says, “We see good sign of China’s shifting growth reliance from manufacturing to services sector. With China’s growing importance in world economy and UHNWI population growth, BOCIL has witnessed clients’ increasing sophistication and acceptance to products, such as private trust and asset allocation.  BOCIL will continue to dedicate great efforts in further enhancing its service and product platform to fulfill client’s wealth management needs”

Residential hotspots in Asia:
Source: The Wealth Report 2016, Pages 44-45

In a higher-interest rate and lower-growth environment, picking the right residential property investment location becomes a more pressing issue.

Country: Vietnam
Structural reforms initiated by the current government place Vietnam ahead of other emerging markets. Importantly for investors, new rules were brought in during 2015 which opened up property markets to foreign buyers.

City: Shanghai
The city, along with Shenzhen, the other financial hub of mainland China, has turned a corner in economic and market terms over the past six months. Shanghai is seeing positive price growth on the back of continued urbanisation, a diverse and thriving service sector and a strong international community.  

Neighbourhood: Chiyoda, Tokyo
The prime residential market in Chiyoda–along with Minato and Chuo, the two other central Tokyo wards –have performed well since the advent of Abenomics. While Japan’s overall population is in decline, Tokyo continues to see its numbers swell. Chiyoda’s residential market looks set to benefit from the 2020

Olympic Games, which will bring improvements in infrastructure and attract foreign investment.

Commercial Property
Source: The Wealth Report, P50-51
 
Knight Frank’s capital markets experts look at the key trends of the past decade, future opportunities for private investors and landmark deals in their market.
 
Neil Brooks, Head of Capital Markets, Asia Pacific, says, “the expansion of interest in commercial property from a swelling population of wealthy individuals has perhaps been the most notable trend in the past decade. We expect assets in the key Western markets will continue to be targeted by Asian private investment, while a slow maturing of domestic markets and the growth of different methods of investing – from REITs in India and China, to syndicated or club-type deals that increase UHNWI exposure to the commercial real-estate market.”
 
Paul Hart, Executive Director, Greater China at Knight Frank says, “Chinese institutional investors have dominated the market in the past, but we are starting to see a new wave of Chinese investors venture offshore. These new investors dominate small to mid-cap private investments in primary and secondary locations. The US remains the stand-out location for UHNWIs, but Hong Kong, being closer to home, is also considered an attractive location for them to invest in commercial property in decentralised locations.”
 
Notes to editors:
  • UHNWI: Defined as someone with a net worth of US$30m or more, excluding their principal residence.
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